Wagner James Au / New World Notes

You've probably read rumors that Apple has lowered production numbers of the Vision Pro due to low demand, but a former senior developer of the Vision Pro sees things differently. Avi Bar-Zeev led Apple's Experience Prototyping (XP) team working on Vision Pro, has been working on VR headsets since the 90s, and so has a much wiser perspective: 

I don't work for Apple anymore and would certainly never speak for them. But I will say the analysts citing "dramatically lowered production numbers" have lost all credibility.

First the analysts said AVP was supply-limited to 180k units. Now they claim Apple is cutting production from 800k to down to 400k. We must have all imagined the report where Apple RAISED production goals first for such a cut to happen. But it makes for a good attention grabber! Let's just look at the real numbers when they come out.

Honestly, my expectation was that every dev or enthusiast in the US who wanted one or needed one lined up to get one early on. Similar folks overseas are still waiting for their chance (and have gotten creative in the meantime).

Future growth would largely come from new apps that deploy many units for high-value use cases. Like when a certain consulting company reportedly bought 100k Quests for onboarding new employees during the pandemic.

Avi tells me he estimates total sales for the first production run will be in the mid-six figures: "I would consider 200k US + 200k worldwide to be successful." That's about in line with my own forecast from February, that Vision Pro will probably sell 250K units this year.

Anyway, more from Avi, with a very interesting Apple analogy:

I've said from the beginning that the AVP, as Apple's first Spatial Computer, was not going to be an "iPhone moment" (which still took 5+ years to ramp) but more of a Lisa or Macintosh moment.

The Lisa was truly groundbreaking, but too expensive for most people. The first Macs still cost way more than an AVP in today's dollars, and it also took a while before they became widely popular. But that's the appropriate set of numbers we can look at to compare 'apples to apples.'

This sounds right. I don't know how many people even remember Apple Lisa from the early 80s (except maybe if they saw the Steve Jobs movie) but if it takes as long for Vision Pro to reach Mac-level mainstream adoption, think decades, not years. (In other words, don't believe the Apple hypesters: Think Different.)

More related thoughts here.