Wagner James Au / New World Notes

Meta just reported that its XR division Reality Labs earned $1.07 billion in Q4 2023 for sales of its new Quest 3 headset ($499), along with its Quest 2 ($299), Ray-Ban "smart" glasses, and revenue from its Quest store.

So now it's time to play everyone's favorite napkin math game: How many Quest 3s were sold during that period, when it went on sale?

Meta doesn't disclose specific headset model sales, so reading the tea leaves is even tougher.

Quest store revenue has fluctuated between $40 million and $60 million per month recently, but let's assume it was about $180 million in Q4 2023. And also assume the rest of that $1.07B revenue — $890,000,000 — was almost completely earned through Quest 2 and Quest 3 sales.

We can break that down in terms of install base ranges:

If all the headsets sold in Q4 were Quest 3s, then as many as 1.8 million Quest 3 HMDs were sold in Q4 2023.

If half the headset revenue was from Quest 3 sales, then as many as 900,000 Quest 3 HMDs were sold in Q4 2023.

And if half the sales were for Quest 3, then Quest 2 sold as many as 1.5 million headsets in Q4 2023. 

I'm rounding up in all cases.

All those scribblings laid on the table, it's safe to estimate the Quest 3 now has an install base of 900,000 to 1.5 million. (Because there's no way all Q4 HMD revenue was entirely from Quest 3 sales!)

We can also safely estimate the Quest 2's total install base is finally over 20 million, after floating just beneath that milestone last Summer.

Again these are just rough estimates based on public figures. If I missed any important considerations, comment below or email me directly at wjamesau at gmail.