Wagner James Au / New World Notes

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Reviewing & Grading My Metaverse Predictions for 2022 on Quest 2 Sales, Blockchain, Linden Lab and More

Metaverse predictions forecasts

Time to take a lot at what I predicted would happen in 2022, and compare it with what actually did:

Apple will not announce AR/VR products in 2022.

Yes. And I'm tempted to predict the same thing for 2023!

Second Life finally gets an official mobile app in 2022.

Yes, though kinda sorta. Some SLers aren't super happy about the gingerbread man avatar they have to use.

Quest 2 Install Base Remains Under 20 Million in 2022.

Probably. It was pinned at 15 million last October, and Quest 2 holiday says were reportedly down, so it's still likely hovering at just under 20 million.

There will be major government involvement over one or more Metaverse platforms.

Yes. Getting in right under the wire, this from December: Fortnite Video Game Maker Epic Games to Pay More Than Half a Billion Dollars over FTC Allegations of Privacy Violations and Unwanted Charges.

Four more predictions to review after the break!

VRChat or Rec Room will be acquired or partner with a major tech company in 2022.

Wrong! Though I did say to someone at Meta, "Why don't you all just give up with Horizon and buy Rec Room?" To which they said something to the effect of, "The government would jump down our throats!"

There will be a major scandal or controversy around one of the blockchain/NFT-oriented Metaverse platforms in 2022.

Yes. I'm tempted to say the whole year of 2022 was nothing but controversies!

Linden Lab spinoff startup Tilia to announce major funding or partnership in 2022.

Yes, two actually: Unity in late January and JP Morgan in October.

Valve/Steam will announce its own Metaverse product in 2022.

Another wrong! Though I still can't believe I'm wrong there.

So grading myself on a curve, that looks like 6 out of 8 correct. So say a solid B. Let's see how I do in 2023.

By the way, don't forget to make your own '23 predictions here.

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3 responses to “Reviewing & Grading My Metaverse Predictions for 2022 on Quest 2 Sales, Blockchain, Linden Lab and More”

  1. Estelle Pienaar Avatar
    Estelle Pienaar

    If you give into your temptations to predict no apple vr/ar announcement, it would be the fastest wrong ever!

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  2. Martin K. Avatar
    Martin K.

    VRChat or Rec Room will be acquired or partner with a major tech company in 2022.
    Wrong! Though I did say to someone at Meta, “Why don’t you all just give up with Horizon and buy Rec Room?” To which they said something to the effect of, “The government would jump down our throats!”
    I guess, Meta won’t buy another metaverse app as long as they have teams working on Horizon Worlds and Crayta (and Ready at Dawn possibly working on yet another metaverse app).
    As Rec Room is quickly running out of new, profitable platforms, they might already have the peak of their success behind them without investors having given up hope, thus, their valuation might be way too high for an acquisition currently. Why buy now, when you can buy for a fraction of the cost in a few years?
    VRChat is probably growing a bit more, but it’s increasingly clear that VRChat is not for everyone, thus, they might have to transition to a permanent niche state without total user growth soon (like Second Life did long ago). That’s a bad fit for Meta’s ambitions in social VR. I’m not sure there is any other big player who would be interested in such a niche product that comes with a lot of controversies – maybe ByteDance or Tencent?

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  3. Angel Avatar
    Angel

    “Apple will not announce AR/VR products in 2022.” How about Apple’s Vision Pro (augmented reality)? They literally released this info 5 days ago.

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