Wagner James Au / New World Notes

Original chart via UploadVR, annotated with Quest 2 sales estimates by me

Facebook’s latest earnings report is once again playing the coy game of referring to Oculus device and software sales “as non-advertising revenue” without giving any specifics, so we must continue the coyly make install base estimates. And based on some rough but reasonable assumptions*, Facebook probably sold 1.4 million to 1.9 million Quest 2 units in the first quarter of 2021, a slight decrease in the estimated 1.5 million to 2 million Quest 2 units sold in the first quarter of its launch, in Q4 2020.

Or to put it another way: The Quest 2 probably has a total install base somewhere between 3 million and 4 million. Which isn’t bad! That still trails PSVR’s install base in absolute numbers, but then again the Quest 2 has been on the market for far less time. The next test is whether this revenue remains steady; if it does, by end of 2021 it’ll hit the 10 million install base that Mark Zuckerberg arbitrarily set as the target for mainstream adoption. (10 million is still far smaller than leading game consoles, but that’s another topic for another time.)

*Here’s my original post where I show all my estimate assumption. For this post’s estimate, I’m assuming each Quest 2 owner spends an average of $50 each on Oculus downloadable content.