
Longtime metaverse analyst and developer Gwyneth Llewelyn recently posted a good reader comment analyzing Meta's early efforts in the space. And I do mean "longtime" — this is her avatar from 2006 when she was in a trademark dispute over a collectivist utopia in Second Life. (Yes, that's a thing.)
Leaping off from my observation that Meta's Horizon Worlds ad for the Super Bowl seems depressingly targeted at middle age people who feel washed up, she dives right in:
Actually, let me play Devil's Advocate here. What's so wrong about targeting GenXers with a depressing video? Most of them are on Facebook anyway, and already depressed (and getting worse). So that's Meta's target audience — trying to recapture those GenXers who finally gave up on Facebook and are ready to try the Next Best Thing.
Interestingly, the best part of that ad is the most depressing one — the one that uses real life action with CGI for the animatronics. That's the bit where the director's got creative.
The worst bit is, well, Horizon. I'm sorry, but shelling out a small fortune for a VR headset to get legless, low-polygon avatars that seem to do little more than crowd around you, having a weird minimalistic almost-wireframe-y background of speeding flying cars… I don't know, but the appeal is simply not there.
Unless things start to improve soon and fast, I'm not really sure that Horizon will last long as a Meta product…
However, I'm not saying that Meta will move out of VR gadgets and games. These are lucrative businesses by themselves, with strong, well-proven business models. And with hundreds of millions of computer game players world-wide, that's not a niche market. What Meta could attempt to do is a long-running series of (independent) games that use the same avatar technology, and capitalize on the ability of players to personalize them (even outside of the game itself) on a 'social' VR platform where outfits and props for avatars are for sale — a bit like the old PlayStation Home, which has been resurrected by the fan base, and, looking at their Git repository, it's being actively maintained.
Now, I never owned a game console (I have no time for that!), so I cannot tell how much interest PlayStation Home has (or had). There is clearly a reason for why Sony abandoned it in 2015 (I just don't know what reason was given at the time). Nevertheless, the notion that a fan base can resurrect such a project shows that there is some interest in such a product. How 'niche' it will ever be is anyone's question. But I'd say that Horizon could become the next 'PlayStation Home' for the Oculus ecosystem.
Ah, PlayStation Home. Remember when Second Life had so much industry buzz, one of the top console manufacturers in the world launched a (poorly executed) alternative? Pepperidge Hamlet remembers.
Gwyn, who's led development on metaverse projects for major companies through her firm Beta Technologies, goes on to analyze Meta and Horizon's future prospects, and has some good advice for Meta going forward:
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