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Metaverse-Related Reader Predictions for 2024– And a Call for an Easy Riders, Raging Bulls-Style Creative Transformation

Metaverse Raging Bulls

Here's some reader predictions for the coming year, first from longtime media exec Matthew Hawn:

We get a solid UGC commercial hit on UEFN – built in their Creative 2.0 tools – that *isnt* from Epic Games. 

The focus on populating 3D worlds with AI characters fails to ignite anyone's interest. Why? NPCs without real storytelling frameworks and actual plots are just as boring as empty 3D worlds. We need the energy and revolution of 60's and 70's indie Hollywood for the metaverse/game world (as chronicled in Peter Biskin's excellent Easy Riders, Raging Bulls).

As an example of prediction #1, Matthew mentions Cabbage Systems, and indie studio building original games on UEFN (I.E., Unreal Engine for Fortnite), and recommends following Simon Carless's DiscoverCo newsletter to track this emerging ecosystem. 

As to prediction #2, I definitely agree we'll probably see disappointing results from AI-driven game characters. (Or to make that a more verifiable prediction: we won't see games/metaverse platforms with a heavy focus on AI characters attract strong player usage.)

I also hope that we see a burst of 70's movie-style creative energy in the metaverse platform space. Acclaimed game designer Jenova Chen (Journey) said something similar to me last year for the book, when alluding to his future plans with Sky: Children of Light:

Every successful metaverse platform evokes emotional chords, from the wonder and awe of exploring a new world, to the surprise and delight of user creativity. Chen’s goal is to create a broadly accessible experience with a wide enough emotional spectrum to appeal across all demographics. He also thinks it’s in the Metaverse that his lifelong goal of creating the Citizen Kane of games might be achieved.

Yes, Citizen Kane is from the 40s, but it was a huge influence on the great filmmakers associated with the 70's era. At any rate, metaverse platforms definitely need more designers like Chen from the "art game" space.

More 2024 predictions from reader Martin K below:

Apple releases Vision Pro, sells all devices that they produce, and cannot always meet demand.

Meta releases a new cheap Quest headset with optional controllers, better mixed reality than Quest 2, and better software compatibility to Quest 3 than Quest 2.

Valve announces a new VR headset with mixed reality capabilities.

During most of 2024, Roblox's native Quest app stays ahead of Rec Room and VRChat in Meta's "Most Popular" game category.

Meta does not revive the "Builder Tracks" of the Oculus Start and Oculus Launch Pad programs for developing in Horizon Worlds, and does not hold new building competitions in Horizon Worlds with significant cash prizes.

Ready at Dawn announces a new game for Quest.

Most of these sound right to me, except for the VisionPro being a big hit out the gate. I'd say that's highly unlikely and probably not even what Apple wants. But I'll dive into the details on that question in a future post!

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3 responses to “Metaverse-Related Reader Predictions for 2024– And a Call for an Easy Riders, Raging Bulls-Style Creative Transformation”

  1. Martin K. Avatar
    Martin K.

    Most of these sound right to me, except for the VisionPro being a big hit out the gate. I’d say that’s highly unlikely and probably not even what Apple wants.
    I didn’t predict that it will be a big hit, I don’t think it will be a big hit, and it’s not necessary for it to be a big hit for Apple not being able to meet demand: there is reporting that Apple won’t be able to produce more than 400,000 units in all(!) of 2024. That means that it cannot be a big hit in terms of raw sales numbers. But that limited production capacity could (and I think will) lead to limited availability and that could/will trigger a couple of feed-back loops.
    For example: limited availability could lead to perceived scarcity, which could lead to a perceived increased value, which could lead to increased demand, which could further limit availability.
    And/or: limited availability in the US could lead to Apple postponing a launch in other countries, which could lead to many US sales that go into other countries, which could further limit availability in the US.
    And/or: limited availability could increase second hand prices for the device, which could increase demand since more people will be willing to spend the money if they can be sure that they can sell the device second-hand for not much less than they paid if they don’t want to keep it.
    And of course, Apple won’t like the limited production capacity. But apparently, they cannot avoid it this year. Anyway, we will see what happens in one or two months.

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  2. Nadeja Avatar
    Nadeja

    There are now LLMs with a context window of over 100k tokens (in November, Anthropic even announced 200k for their Claude), large enough to hold a whole novel. That sounds enough to me to provide them with “storytelling frameworks and actual plots” in the pre-prompt.
    Also just a couple of months ago Microsoft announced a partnership with Inworld AI
    https://developer.microsoft.com/en-us/games/articles/2023/11/xbox-and-inworld-ai-partnership-announcement/
    There is also Nvidia on it:
    https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/generative-ai-npcs/
    Inworld has existed since before 2023, but the backing from major companies in the recent months may make it more attractive for developers to invest in this platform now.
    Developing AAA games usually takes several years, though, therefore I don’t expect too much for this year; maybe some indie games or, at most, something added as an after-though as an experiment or DLC. For AAA games built around these systems from ground up I’d expect more in the next years. In the meantime these models and platforms are also improving.
    This is based on the assumption that development will continue at the current pace, though; surprises, no matter how unlikely, are always a possibility, and a major innovation / breakthrough on one side or (since we live in chaotic times) another political or geopolitical crisis on the other side, might divert the course of everything. I hope it’s going to be a year of wonders (or at least a calm year) and not one of further disaster, wars and horrors.
    Anyways, happy new year!

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  3. poptropica Avatar
    poptropica

    I find Matthew’s insights on Cabbage Systems and UEFN quite fascinating, especially with the potential for unique games emerging in that space. Jenova Chen’s vision resonates—infusing creativity and engagement will be crucial for metaverse success. Let’s hope for a creative renaissance in 2024!

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