Update, 6/10: In a conversation with Axie Infinity's developer on Twitter, Arcane Research amended its report of Axie Infinity usage, saying it's much more than initially suggested in this infographic; Sky Maven COO Aleksander Leonard Larsen claims current usage is 588K DAU / 1.5M MAU. Read this post for more details.
Many crypto enthusiasts insist that NFTs and the blockchain are an integral part of the Metaverse, but somewhere along the way, actual consumers did not get that memo. Metaverse developer Rafael Brown just shared this rather jaw-dropping chart with me, taken from this in-depth usage report. And while I've previously expressed some skepticism around the Sandbox and Decentraland, the leading blockchain-based metaverse platforms, the active user numbers are even more dire than I last reported:
"They were both sub-1000 per week much of last year, Sandbox spiked to 7000 per week in November and is back down to 1000 per week or less, " as Rafael summarizes. "Decentraland spiked to 2000 per week in November and is back down well below 1000 per week." (Also note the now-miniscule weekly usage of Axie Infinity, once a darling of "play to earn" advocates. NOTE: See update above.)
I cannot emphasize enough how small these usage numbers are. For instance, VRChat and metaverse grandaddy Second Life each typically have peak daily concurrent users of 30,000+. (And often much more than that.)
But within the blockchain industry, Rafael observes, the paltry user numbers for The Sandbox and Decentraland aren't seen as concerning: "[T]hey just see it as the very early part of their pre-ordained growth to take over the world, whereas I see it as numbers that are so small as to be unsustainable."
A longtime member of the game industry and frequent conference speaker, he believes continued enthusiasm for blockchain games is not coming from game developers per se:
"What I found in the game industry is that most of the people who are very pro-NFT are former mobile games executives who are getting hooked into investor money to do things with NFTs but generally are detached from the actual development and inner workings of the products that they push," as he puts it. Beyond people actively seeking venture capital, "we don’t really see that much new or useful that they do."
To me the virtual community (or lack of one) is the real telltale sign here. I still think Decentraland in particular has some very interesting ideas around ownership and virtual world management, ideas that echo the original Metaverse conception from Snow Crash. But when a community of engaged users doesn't grow and sustain around those ideas — despite much media hype — it's time consider what in the vision might be missing.
Update, June 8: More analysis here.
Wagner James Au / New World Notes 
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