- Do Consumers Say They Don't Want A Vision Pro In The Same Way They Once Said They Didn't Want An IPhone? Good Point By Matthew Ball.
- Second Life's Upcoming Mobile App Improves World Graphics And Now Includes Instant / Direct Messaging To Other In-World SLers!
- Can Midjourney Actually Build A Holodeck Despite Technical & IP Infringement Hurdles? Reid Southen Has Doubts.
- Only 1 In 3 Quest 2 Owners Are Monthly Users — Jaw-Dropping Stat Cited In Matthew Ball's Latest Report
- Vision Pro New World Notes Reader Survey Results: Nearly 1 In 5 Want To Buy The Headset This Year… But Almost Half Don't Want One At All
My Patreon Supporters
Hypnotic Romance, an SL sim with secluded spaces for couples. Click here to teleport.
-
Metaverse author Matthew Ball (who we were just talking about!) made a good point in Comments, responding to our survey that nearly half the respondents said they "never" want an Apple Vision Pro.
The thing is, Matt points out, people once said that about the iPhone before it launched in 2007:
I dare say that it’s foolish for (nearly) anyone to say they will “never” buy a product they’ve not yet tried (and almost no one has), at any price (and implicitly, at any future revision). To say nothing of the company that produces it.
To that end, it recalls Universal McCann’s somewhat infamous study from before the iPhone:
"The simple truth: convergence [as in the case of the iPhone] is a compromise driven by financial limitations, not aspiration. In the markets where multiple devices are affordable, the vast majority would prefer that to one device fits all," wrote the report’s author. "Only 31% of Americans surveyed said they wanted a device with multiple capabilities, and that dropped to 27% in Japan. In the US, 60% of mobile phone users already own three or more specialist devices such as digital cameras, MP3 players and portable media devices.
"Demand was highest in Mexico, where 79% said they would like one converged device, with 72% in Malaysia and Brazil, 70% in India and 65% in the Philippines, although the mobile markets in these countries are driven by very cheap or free handsets."
Of course, there is selection bias in contrasting a failed study for a hit device – which is to say, it does not at all validate HMDs overall, let alone now, or in this product – but the circumstances here are quite similar!
Also very interesting that it was most consumers in the "developing" world who first saw the desirability of a device like the iPhone, while most in the US and Japan did not. But as Matt's point about Apple suggests, it wasn't just that the iPhone played music, and took photos, and sent texts, etc. — it's that the iPhone did all that easily and beautifully.
This also brings to mind a point suggested by Jeff Yang last year, about how an existing desire for many screens at once could benefit the Vision Pro:
-
Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting
I am excited to welcome back Ch’Know Style by Alicia Chenaux to the Second Life blogosphere. Alicia is a friend and she’s been on a blogging hiatus for a few years, but it looks like she’s got her mojo back.
Today’s All We Got, So We Cannot Stop (above) is her third post since returning and look, she has the coveted Stanley cup. Of course, it’s not called a Stanley cup — this is SL, after all, and her version is the Peony Tumbler:
- Face Layers by Izzie’s:
- Lipstick: Alicia by Delicatta
- Hair: Focus by Foxy
- Top: Star Shirt by Ilaya [N21]
- Pants: Ada Corduroy Skinny Pants by Thalia Heckroth
- Necklace: Felisa by AvaWay [Cosmopolitan]
- Earrings: Pearls of Wisdom by Goldleaf
- Peony Tumbler by Sparkle Skye [The Kawaii Project]
Be sure to click through to her blog for the complete credits. And yes, she really is wearing eleven face layers from Izzie’s and lipstick from Delicatta on top of that.
For more from Alicia, click here:
-
Pic by TavishBrock on the SL iOS app — click here to teleport to compare and contrast
Linden Lab continues rolling out closed Alpha invites of its upcoming iOS/Android app for Second Life to Premium+ subscribers (see "Mobile Update" here). And by the looks of it, continues improving the app itself. Here's a new update and screenies courtesy longtime SLer TavishBrock Resident of the Rosehaven Estates, who gave us an early hands-on preview last month.
"The newest version seems significantly better than the first alpha," Tavish tells me. "The visual artifacts for missing textures are gone so the world looks much more like it should. Now I feel like I can walk around and have some sense of where I actually am (but a mini-map would really help with that as well)."
User interface looks pretty clean and simple, at least on the top level:
"There's missing functionality," notes Tavish, "but it's still early days and I assume that more will be added as things progress. The virtual joystick works fairly well, but I wouldn't say no to keyboard controls (which I assume is way down on the list of things to add, and understandably so)."
I am hoping we get some kind of "wow" UI interactions that make the user experience more magically intuitive than the desktop version, but still waiting on signs of that.
However, there's one big feature to mobile that's live: You can message other online Second Life users through the mobile app! Yes:
-
Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting
Digital♦ Sea gives us a beautiful visualization of someone being abducted by aliens in Second Life. I am surprised there wasn’t a flood of alien invasion pics after a few retired military pilots testified to having witnessed unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) before Congress last summer. Of course, the most surprising testimony was from an intelligence officer that the military had recovered non-human biological material from a crash. Sadly, it was hearsay, what he claimed he had been told, not what he witnessed.
I am certain there is intelligent life in the universe, but not at all certain they have visited us as they have the same physics problems to overcome that we do. However, back in the 90s with my first computer, I began volunteering its background time to Seti@Home, the distributed computing effort to find intelligent life. It’s done collecting data now so now I have my computer working for World Community Grid now and am getting close to 6 million units of work done on medical research.
While I write this column, numbers are crunching in the background. I just set my parameters years ago when I installed the app and let it do its thing and never think of it. It’s probably more useful crunching numbers for vaccines than for intelligent life, but it was more exciting imagining Contact!.
For more virtual world depictions of first contact, click here:
-
Matrix Resurrections artwork by Reid Southern (copyright Warner Brothers)
Midjourney plans to make some kind of open world “holodeck”, as CEO David Holz confirmed with me earlier this month. But that actually just begs the question: Can it even feasibly do so?
The company is already careening toward IP infringement challenges for its 2D image creator, based on reports of rampant copyright infringement, including a lawsuit led by artist Jon Lamm, alleging that Midjourney staff (including Holz) have intentionally “laundered” the work of thousands of artists into its training database without consent.
So what happens when Midjourney tries creating a platform with immersive 3D content?
Film industry concept artist David Southen, who’s worked on Marvel and DC movies, not to mention the Matrix and Alien franchise, is highly doubtful.
“In terms of them pulling something like this off without IP issues?” as he puts it. “They can’t even pull off what they’re currently doing without IP issues, and I doubt they’re being more careful with their dataset than previously, so I would say no.”
Southen would know, and not just because of his unimpeachable geek artist cred. He recently wrote this report with renowned AI ethicist Gary Marcus, highlighting the existing problem:
These results provide powerful evidence that Midjourney has trained on copyrighted materials, and establish that at least some generative AI systems may produce plagiaristic outputs, even when not directly asked to do so, potentially exposing users to copyright infringement claims. Recent journalism supports the same conclusion; for example, a lawsuit has introduced a spreadsheet attributed to Midjourney containing a list of more than 4,700 artists whose work is thought to have been used in training, quite possibly without consent. For further discussion of generative AI data scraping, see Create Don’t Scrape.
How much of Midjourney’s source materials are copyrighted materials that are being used without license? We do not know for sure.
More on this on Marcus’ blog.
And unlike most 2D artists, high quality 3D files tend to be owned by folks like major game publishers and movie effects houses who won’t exactly be thrilled about giving away their content for free — and have full-time lawyers on staff to protect it.
As for the technical challenges, Reid continued:
-
Matthew Ball, author of The Metaverse, has a massive new report on the state of the broader game industry, "The Tremendous Yet Troubled State of Gaming in 2024", which includes this fairly surprising passage on the current state of consumer VR:
According to IDC, worldwide VR/AR headset sales fell 8.3% in 2023, a year after sales fell 20.9%… Some slowdown was expected after Meta unveiled the Quest 3 in May 2023 but set a fall release date, yet the Quest 3 appears to be selling more slowly than its predecessor. Studies suggest fewer than one in three Quest 2s are used on a monthly basis (points that harm both software and hardware sales).
Emphasis mine! I'm not completely surprised by that paltry stat just based on activity reported in the Quest store, and the device's tiny attach rate averages (2-3 games bought per owner), but checked with Matt on the source for this. Turns out he's citing a study from the Wall Street Journal (quoted in Upload VR here) which reported 6.37 million monthly active Quest 2 users last October, when the total Quest 2 install base was around 20 million.
1 in 3 is a very painfully low number, but important to know going forward. Once again I think the wider VR industry must recalibrate its market expectations, especially around reports highlighted in my book that women and girls have a high propensity to get nauseous in VR (along with a significant minority of males). A device that causes anyone in the household to get sick to the point of puking is probably not going to be used much afterward.
As for the Metaverse, Matt doesn't cover that much directly in this report, except to note the continued growth of Roblox and Fortnite — and highlighting the rise of UGC first cultivated on these platforms:
-
//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js
Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting
Ed Rhode stopped by to witness the historic debarking of the animals two by two from the famed Noah’s Ark, a short term exsimbition at Golden Place. [Click to Teleport] Ed is someone who documents the sims he visits and often joins in the activities on offer. I wonder if he saw a unicorn. In his About bio, Ed describes himself as an explorer: “I have fun sharing in Flickr the cool places to visit. I hope you enjoy them!” His name in SL is Edrdng Rhode in case you want him to check out your sim.
For more of his travels, click here:
-
Here's the results of my super scientific survey on buying the Vision Pro. Among the 80 respondents asked when they plan to buy Apple's HMD, a strong plurality of 45% chose "Never".
On the other side, 50% said they do want a Vision Pro… at some point. Some sooner than later.
10% answered "Now", which is a pretty strong result for a device costing some $3500. Add to that the 9% who answered, "Within a year of launch if reviews are generally good".
Or to put it another way: Despite the high price, nearly 1 in 5 respondents say they plan to buy the Apple Vision Pro this year.
Unsurprisingly, the 2nd largest preference was price-driven, with 20% expressing interest when the Vision Pro was priced under $500. Less than 10% are holding out for a more modest price cut down to $2500 or $1500.
So there you go. While this is a totally casual poll, I do think it's fair to say it roughly reflects the consumer interest of people who read this blog, i.e. people who are highly interested in virtual worlds and VR/AR-related technology. In other words, Apple Vision Pro's target market.
But even if New World Notes readers are ideal early adopters of technology like the Vision Pro, most are holding out for a heavy price cut — while nearly half are just simply not interested.
Here's some responses from readers:
-
In the run-up to the launch of Second Life's long-awaited mobile app this year, Linden Lab is also updating SL-related web services and various in-world features. We know this because, well, Linden Lab is currently hiring two people to work on those projects:
We are looking for a Server Application Engineer to join Second Life's Server team and help develop the persistent real time simulation software and supporting services behind one of the world's most long-lived and rich virtual worlds… As part of this work you will be expected to frequently collaborate in-world with users to ensure the team delivers projects that matter and are relevant to what residents need and will have the opportunity to work with a broad range of web, networking and simulation technology.
Notably, this job description also mentions working on "new in-world scripting behavior". So this seems like an ideal job for a veteran Second Life content creator who wants a relatively stable role with a good salary.
Add to that this other opening, for a Senior Software Engineer with a web emphasis:
Wagner James Au / New World Notes 