Skip to content

Wagner James Au / New World Notes

Author, strategist, virtual world reporter

  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Patreon
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Discord
  • Instagram
  • Bluesky
  • Open Forum: What Are Your SL / Virtual World / Metaverse Predictions for 2025?

    January 3, 2025

    Post your own predictions for highlighting here and on New World Notes, the more concrete and easier to validate, the better!*

    I'll start with two of my own:

    • Thanks to the launch of Linden Lab's mobile app and cloud streaming, Second Life increases peak concurrent users by at least 20%. I predicted something like this would happen last year, but muffed it. But I'm still bullish on this happening in 2025!

    • A leading metaverse platform start-up is acquired or goes on an IPO track. This is another prediction I missed in 2024, but I actually think VRChat's painful layoffs last year better position them for this happening (if they want) in 2025.

    I'll think of more predictions over the weekend, but want to read yours first!

    I usually post an open forum for New Year predictions in late December, by the way, but this time, when I got the sense something big was coming in early January, had to move it to this week.

    (more…)

  • Casja’s Choices: My Five Favorite Second Life-Themed Flickr Groups of 2024 — Consider Joining Them in 2025!

    January 3, 2025

    To The Lighthouse

    Cajsa Lilliehook covers the best in virtual world screenshot art and digital painting

    Joanna Kitten’s “To the Lighthouse” is just one of thousands of pictures of Second Life birds in Second Life Avians, a Flickr group organized by Bella Blackheart.She took an interesting approach to the Rule of Odd Numbers. There are five birds, four in the background and one in the foreground, in the upper right. I confess, for a moment or two, I mistook the umbrella for a corvid which made me laugh and love this picture even more. I love birds but am allergic to their feathers, fortunately I am not allergic to Second Life birds. So the bird groups are dear to my heart, which puts this group on my list of favorite SL Flickr groups of 2024, and the first to be featured in today’s column. 

    For more of my favorite Flickr groups, click here:

    (more…)

  • BREAKING: Linden Lab Test Launches Browser-Based Streaming for Second Life — And You Can Try it Now!

    January 2, 2025

    SL Zero streaming Waterhead

    Above: At my office in Waterhead via Project Zero

    Starting now — and starting 2025 with guns blazing — you can try out browser-based streaming of Second Life, enabling you to experience the virtual world with maximum graphics settings displayed on a web browser, even on low-end PCs/laptops — go here to access it for up to 10 minutes.

    I just tried it out, and it's pretty impressive, even in this early test phase. Teleporting to sims is quicksilver fast, taking less than a second. Right now, you access it through Linden Lab's existing default browser, but in future iterations, the streaming user interface will completely change. (More on that below.)

    This streaming project, internally dubbed “Project Zero”, has been in development even before Philip Rosedale rejoined Linden as CTO in late 2024, is hands-on proof that the company is not completely pinning the future of Second Life to the new mobile app. Project Zero is shaping up to be the way new users will first experience the virtual world, seamlessly and beautifully, whether or not their machine can manage SL's full 3D graphics.

    A Surprising Solution to Post-PBR Problems

    Project Zero also an answer to a problem Oberwager acknowledged during another briefing last year: Second Life’s recent upgrade to PBR graphics caused a drop in log-ins among the existing user base, as people with lower end machine had trouble displaying physically based rendering.

    “We have come up with an incredible fix that will have an amazing impact on all current and future residents," he told me last month. I initially thought he was referring to bug fixes, but no: It’s a whole new way of experiencing Second Life, and when it’s officially rolled out, will come with a modern upgrade to the UI, re-built from the ground up.

    I should say a new old way: Linden Lab originally tested out browser-based streaming of Second Life in 2010, then again in 2015, from well-funded startup OnLive. (Disclosure: I helped OnLive launch that project on the marketing side.) It worked pretty well, but broadband and computing costs were too expensive back then to make it scalable. Since then, however, those prices have come substantially down, driven in part by the recent boom in large language model AI programs like ChatGPT.

    2025, Linden Lab believes, is the year Second Life streaming is finally ready to deploy with Project Zero. 

    In internal testing, Philip Rosedale told me on a recent briefing, they’re getting zero latency. It doesn’t even necessarily require super high-end broadband. “If you can watch Netflix [on your machine],” as he put it, “you can do this.”

    Another key difference from the 2010 and 2015 deployments: 

    (more…)

  • My Personal Top Ten Favorite / Important New World Notes Posts of 2024

    December 30, 2024

    If you missed these stories over the year, I hope you give them a second look: They're among my personal favorites and/or the ones I believe will remain relevant for the coming year.

    Study Suggests Emotion & Player Agency More Important Than High-End Graphics in Virtual Experience

     "Field of view and visual realism – achieved through cutting-edge graphics and usually powered by high-end headsets – can be relatively unimportant in creating a believable VR experience. Far more important is the way a user is made to feel (e.g. happy or scared) within the virtual environment, the study found." This specific study was conducted in VR with over 300 volunteers, but the results probably apply to flatscreen 3D experiences just as neatly…

    CONFIRMED: Adam Schiff's Generative AI Copyright Disclosure Act Would Apply to Video Games, Virtual Worlds & Metaverse Platforms

    While the 2024 election means Schiff's specific bill is dead in the water, the gen AI intellectual property controversy will likely come to a head in 2025. (Or stagger on, bloody and bedraggled, through protracted court battles.)

    US Government-Funded Researchers Found That Women Using Quest Devices Much More Likely to Experience VR Nausea. No One in Meta/the VR Industry Has Contacted Them About It.

    I can't believe the tech/VR industry hasn't given this revelation wider (hardly any?) coverage, so I'll keep bringing it up until they do:

    Dr. Kelly tells me no one at Meta, let alone the VR industry at large, has contacted him about these findings.

    “I'm not sure why they haven't reached out,” he tells me by e-mail. “My guess is they have their own ideas of how to solve the problem of cybersickness, but I don't think the industry track record on that is very good.”  

    He adds that they may just be unaware of this research (from a NSF-backed, well-ranked science and technology-focused university), but I tend to agree about the unimpressive track record. Then again, no one at Meta contacted danah boyd about her findings, even though she’s a senior researcher at Microsoft.

    Seven more beneath the break!

     

    (more…)

  • Top 10 Most Popular New World Notes Posts in 2024!

    December 26, 2024

    Based on social shares and/or total pageviews, roughly arranged in chronological order, here's the most read New World Notes posts of 2024. Overall, these also posts happen to be a pretty good reflection of the year that was!

    Midjourney Metaverse? CEO David Holz Confirms AI Startup is Building "Real-Time Open World Holodeck"

    I received a late-night reply from Midjourney CEO David Holz himself, in answer to my email with the subject line, "Confirm Midjourney holodeck announcement?"… Holz's one sentence reply: "roughly correct quote yes". 

    Confirmed: Linden Lab Investigating Serious Allegations Recently Posted to Social Media, Say Sources

    I can now confirm through at least two highly credible sources that the company is indeed investigating these claims — both the accusations themselves and whether they have defamatory intent.

    CONFIRMED: Adam Schiff's Generative AI Copyright Disclosure Act Would Apply to Video Games, Virtual Worlds & Metaverse Platforms

    I contacted Adam Schiff's office [asking:] "Would the Act apply to 3D models, i.e., content in video games, virtual worlds, and metaverse platforms? So for instance, 3D models of castles, heroes, user-generated 3D models, and so on."

    Rep. Schiff's communications officer confirmed to me that indeed it does: "Yes, it would apply to any copyrighted material."

    With Real Time Mirrors Officially Part of Second Life, Here's a Tutorial for Reflecting Your Virtual World

    More than just a fun visual effect (as amply demonstrated by Gogo of JuicyBomb), mirrors are likely to alter the culture of Second Life. We've already seen that happen in VRChat, where mirrors are central to the social experience.  That said, setting up your own Second Life experience for mirrors takes some work…

    What Went Wrong With WoW? A Blizzard Veteran’s Theory on World of Warcraft’s Fall From Its 12 Million Subscriber Height

    “This is a classic blunder that game studios make — they feel they need only to throw more content at players, more storytelling and more narrative. I love storytelling, narrative, don't get me wrong. But the whole point of a great open world is for you to explore it at your own pace, not to be compelled to do things in an order.”

    Four more after the cut!

     

    (more…)

  • Why a Woman Bonded With Her Virtual Baby — Excerpt from the New Coffee Table Book, SECOND LIFE: The First, Best Metaverse

    December 23, 2024

    SL relationship books

    As a holiday treat, here's an excerpt of Hari Sutherland's new coffee table book, SECOND LIFE: The First, Best Metaverse in Words and Pictures:

    For many, romance is a big part of the online and virtual world experience. While this can undoubtedly lead to real life difficulties and breakups when people form online attachments and cheat on their partners, many virtual world romances lead to happy real-world outcomes, with people who first meet in Second Life eventually meeting, and often marrying, in real life.

    Second life offers a “partnering” option, whereby people commit to one another and their name appears on the partner’s profile. For the more traditionally or romantically-minded, virtual weddings are common, and there’s an active pool of wedding planners and officiants in-world, and numerous sims  or regions specifically designed for use as wedding venues. There are also celebrations of life when a community member passes.

    It doesn’t stop there. In-game apps or HUDs (Heads-up Displays that sit on your screen) offer the ability to conceive and gestate a child, with the mother’s avatar developing realistically during the course of the pregnancy. There are clinics and midwife services available in-world to deliver the baby. Many people, not least those who don’t or can’t have children in real life, find this an immensely rewarding and joyous experience. 

    As SL resident, photographer, and creator Maggie Runo explains:

    (more…)

  • Top 6 Posts Including New Second Life Economy Numbers, A VRChat Game Case Study, and a Now-Paused AI NPC Project from Linden Lab

    December 23, 2024

    SL concurrency 2024 mobile

    • Kickstart This: Trip the Light, a VR Game That Teaches Hand-in-Hand Partner Dancing! – UPDATE: It's successfully funded!
    • Watch: Machinima Artist Shows How Hand-Made Visuals Are Better Than AI
    • Amazing User-Created VRChat Adventure Game World Gets 200,000+ Visits / Favorites… But Only 29 People Paying to Play. Here's Why.
    • Linden Lab Alpha Launches AI-Powered Character Designer for Second Life — Community Concerned About Impact on Virtual World, User Accounts. UPDATE: Linden Lab "pauses" project.
    • SL Mobile App Has Not Increased Peak SL Usage (Yet). Plus Other 2024 Predictions I Got Wrong (or Right).
    • 14 Second Life Creators Became Real Life Millionaires Last Year — And Other Surprising Economic Stats Linden Lab Just Revealed
  • Give the Gift of New World Notes! Send Someone Special a Patreon Membership or My Book Autographed

    December 20, 2024

    Wagner James Au Patreon gift

    Please join my Patreon for free to help sustain New World Notes!

    You can now also send someone a membership to my Patreon as a gift here. If you enjoy reading New World Worlds, I hope you consider sharing and supporting it over the holidays — plus get quality early/exclusive content via the Patreon app, plus other benefits!

    I'm also giving away my autograph plate to anyone who buys a copy of Making of Second Life or Making a Metaverse That Matters. I'll even write a special (short!) dedication message to you or a special someone.

    Here's how:

    (more…)

  • 14 Second Life Creators Became Real Life Millionaires Last Year — And Other Surprising Economic Stats Linden Lab Just Revealed

    December 20, 2024

    SL vs Roblox user monetization

    Originally published on my Patreon

    Linden Lab just publicized a trove of impressive Second Life economic data through a new VentureBeat article which headlines the most impressive stat: Linden Lab has spent $1.3B building Second Life and paid $1.1B to creators.

    Yes: The company has taken very little profit from Second Life over the course of the virtual world's 21 years, instead re-investing it into the platform, while giving the lion's share of in-world earnings to its grassroots creators.

    This is great, though not completely surprising: As I reported in 2017, SL's grassroots creators were likely earning more money from Second Life than Linden Lab itself. Now we know the company is earning slightly more.

    VentureBeat's Dean Takahashi frames these revenue splits in comparison to Roblox, which has vastly more users than SL, yet still shares far less earnings with its creators. (See chart above.)

    Further, Linden Lab gives 90% of in-game transactions to user creators, while Roblox only shares roughly 30% of transactions with theirs. Philip Rosedale told me something similar in 2022, but it's good to see the company publicizing this story to a major tech business outlet.

    Anyway, the economic meat that's likely to interest SLers most is much further down in the article:

    (more…)

  • SL Mobile App Has Not Increased Peak SL Usage (Yet). Plus Other 2024 Predictions I Got Wrong (or Right).

    December 19, 2024

    SL concurrency 2024 mobileOriginally published on my Patreon

    Courtesy Tyche Shepherd, Second Life's unofficial (but highly qualified) demographer, here's a chart of SL activity since the mobile app was made free to play in mid-November. She shared these peak concurrency numbers — i.e. how many people are logged in the most during a given period — after I asked her if she'd seen any usage trend upward since the app's launch. (See above.)

    "No, it hasn't, there was no noticeable uplift in in 7 day moving average of concurrency metrics around the public release on the 13th." (Check out the data for yourself on her Grid Survey site.)

    So that's surprising! Especially now that over 100,000 SLers have downloaded it. My interpretation is that existing SL users are trying it out, but it's not (yet) increasing their overall usage or changing their log-in behavior. I'm talking with Linden heads Brad Oberwager and Philip Rosedale next week, so will hopefully have more insight then.

    At any rate, this also means I muffed one of my metaverse predictions for 2024:

    Thanks to the launch of its mobile app, Second Life increases peak CCU by at least 20%.  Jury is still out whether Second Life's upcoming iOS/Android app actually grows the total user base with new users (especially if the initial launch targets existing users) but I do think we'll see it enabling more of the existing user base log into SL more often. Peak Second Life concurrency is now around 50,000 (hat tip: Daniel), so growing that by 20% to 60,000 seems quite feasible!

    So, well, whoops. And also: Dang.

    Anyway, here's a review of my other predictions on new startups, acquisitions, ROBLOX growth, and Apple VisionPro adoption:

    (more…)

Previous Page Next Page

Blog at WordPress.com.

  • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Wagner James Au / New World Notes
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Wagner James Au / New World Notes
    • Subscribe Subscribed
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar